A Postcard from a Bitcoin Low

Bitcoin and Nostr don't need another DCA calculator. I know that. But it's June 13th, and the SpaceX IPO has people deciding between chasing that and stacking sound money, while Bitcoin just printed a fresh low near $61.5K. The headlines called it ugly, the FUD is real, but the trendline says sats are on sale. Here's what you're about to read.

Part one. We're a long way under the Power Law trendline right now, far enough that climbing back takes time. I had Claude and ChatGPT run that catch-up separately, and I'll show you where they agree and where they don't.

Part two. A calculator, because this is a fun thought exercise and maybe a tool that's fun to play with. Bitcoin's on sale, so what if you stacked an extra $100 — a month, a week, or if you can swing it, a day — and kept it going until price climbs back to the trendline? I ran all three, just to show how much a person can pile up in a window like this.

That's the whole idea. This is a good summer to be hustling.

Maybe you'll find it useful. Maybe you'll skip it. It was fun to build, and it came together fast on the new Claude Fable 5 model, which still surprises me.

So now we know the shape of the discount. Let's run a DCA calculator — the kind we've all run before — but start it here, to see how much we can stack while the sale is on.

Let's say that starting July 1, 2026, you add an extra $100 to whatever you already stack. A month, a week, a day — your call. And you keep that extra going until spot climbs back to the Power Law trendline. Two AI models drew four glide paths back to the line, so there are four ending dates: December 2027, December 2028, June 2029, and December 2030.

Same anchor, same trendline, same math as the chart above. No spreadsheet required. Pick a number and look.

How the math works

• Both AI models anchored at June 10, 2026: spot $61.5K, trendline $133K, a 0.46x multiplier.
• Each scenario glides that multiplier smoothly back to 1.0x by its catch-up date. Spot on any day is the multiplier times the trendline.
• Your extra $100 buys at that day's spot price — monthly on the 1st, weekly every seven days, daily every day — starting July 1, 2026, and ending the day the line touches trend.
• On day one, July 1, 2026, that spot price sits around $63–64K depending on the scenario, since each glide path has climbed a little off the June 10 anchor at its own pace, against a July trendline of $135.5K.
• The stack's final value is your Bitcoin times the trendline price on the catch-up date.

What this isn't

A prediction. Real prices will chop above and below every line here, and your real buys will land all over that chop. This is a deterministic toy built on smooth glide paths, so the numbers are exact for the model and approximate for reality.

It's also not a dare to stack more than you can. The tool works the same at $100 a month or $20 a month. The point isn't the size of the number, it's seeing what time under the line does when the number is honestly yours.

And let me read the obvious out loud, because the page keeps not saying it: stacking into a 50%-off market means buying something that is, right now, falling. It can fall further, for longer than this model thinks, or the model can be wrong about the whole thing. Only stack money you won't need for years and can watch go redder before it goes anywhere. The discount is real and so is the risk — they're the same sentence.